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A Fragile Pause, Not a Full Stop: Why Saudi-Israeli Normalisation May Still Be Possible

Saudi-Israeli normalisation paused, not abandoned—strategic interests may revive Abraham Accords after Gaza war

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Saudi-Israeli normalisation paused, not abandoned—strategic interests may revive Abraham Accords after Gaza war

Senator Lindsey Graham’s recent declaration that U.S.-Saudi defence cooperation must include Saudi normalisation with Israel comes at a complex moment for Middle East diplomacy. While critics suggest the door has closed, Graham’s remarks could reflect not just a policy stance—but a glimpse into behind-the-scenes progress that has yet to reach the headlines.

The broader context is clear: the post-October 7 fallout has shifted the regional mood. Yet even amid deepening humanitarian concerns in Gaza and rising pan-Arab solidarity with Palestinians, there are reasons to believe that the strategic logic underpinning Saudi-Israeli engagement remains intact—albeit postponed, not abandoned.

From Quiet Coordination to Public Caution

Before the war, Saudi Arabia had engaged in indirect negotiations with the United States and Israel, exploring a historic pact that would involve American defence guarantees, access to civil nuclear technology, and tangible (if limited) movement on Palestinian rights. These were not hasty talks—they followed years of quiet coordination and shared threat assessments, particularly around Iran.

October 7 changed the optics but not the underlying strategic calculus. Israel’s war in Gaza understandably halted progress, but it has not erased the geopolitical realities that drew Riyadh and Tel Aviv closer in the first place. While Saudi officials have currently taken normalisation “off the table,” this may reflect a tactical repositioning rather than a full strategic reversal.

Riyadh’s Calibrated Response: Moral Leadership, Diplomatic Patience

Saudi Arabia’s recent statements, including Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s strong condemnation of Israel’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon, reflect the Kingdom’s desire to reassert its leadership in the Muslim world. But they also serve a dual purpose: to safeguard domestic legitimacy and protect Riyadh’s long-term diplomatic leverage.

Rather than rejecting normalisation outright, the Kingdom appears to be reframing the terms—delaying public progress while advocating for meaningful steps toward a Palestinian state. This is not a no—it is a not yet.

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Indeed, the idea that Israel must address the Palestinian issue as part of any normalisation deal is not new. It was already a component of the 2023 negotiations, which included symbolic gestures and economic incentives for Palestinians. The war has raised the stakes, not removed the framework.

Senator Graham’s Statement: Misstep or Strategic Signal?

To some, Senator Graham’s comment—“I will never support a defence pact with Saudi Arabia… unless it includes normalisation with Israel”—might seem tone-deaf. But it may also reflect a broader understanding of American leverage and regional strategy. Rather than imposing conditions, Graham could be signalling Washington’s continued faith in the long-term viability of the Abraham Accords model.

It is also possible the Senator knows more than is currently public. American diplomacy has often moved through backchannels, especially in the Middle East. If conversations have resumed—even informally—then Graham’s statement might be less about pressure, and more about preparing public opinion for eventual progress.

What Happens After Gaza?

Saudi Arabia is unlikely to formalise ties with Israel while war rages in Gaza and while Israeli leadership faces increasing international criticism. But this does not mean the idea has died. The Kingdom has shown it can play a long game, using periods of tension to reshape the narrative in ways that align with its evolving regional ambitions.

The next phase of diplomacy will require more than mutual interest—it will require mutual concessions. If Israel demonstrates a credible commitment to Palestinian rights, and if the Gaza crisis subsides, Riyadh could re-engage. The U.S. may then present a more comprehensive deal—one that balances military assurances, economic incentives, and a moral roadmap for regional stability.

A Window, Not a Wall

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The path to Saudi-Israeli normalisation has never been linear. It has always involved delicate trade-offs, public sensitivities, and geopolitical calculation. Today, that path is obscured by the fog of war—but not entirely blocked.

Senator Graham’s remarks may be read as premature by some. But they may also foreshadow quiet diplomatic currents moving beneath the surface. If so, the real question is not whether normalisation is possible—but how, and when, conditions will once again allow it to emerge.

Saudi-Israeli normalisation paused, not abandoned—strategic interests may revive Abraham Accords after Gaza war
Saudi Israeli normalisation paused not abandonedstrategic interests may revive Abraham Accords after Gaza war

Opinion

From Sand to Snow: Trump’s High-Stakes Gamble in the Arctic and Middle East

Trump reshapes global strategy with bold Arctic push and Middle East deals redefining U.S. power

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Trump reshapes global strategy with bold Arctic push and Middle East deals redefining U.S. power

Under President Donald Trump’s second term, America’s foreign policy playbook has been flipped, rewritten, and autographed with his signature brashness. Gone is the careful calibration of diplomacy and multilateralism; in its place stands a doctrine of deals, dominance, and disruption. Nowhere is this more starkly illustrated than in the frigid frontiers of the Arctic and the simmering sands of the Middle East.

From melting permafrost to mine-riddled deserts, the Trump administration is pursuing parallel campaigns: unlock natural resources, reassert American strategic power, and redefine the global order with Washington squarely in charge. These regions, once bound by geography alone, are now tied together by a foreign policy that values access over alliances and leverage over legacy.


The Arctic: Cold Front, Hot Stakes

The Arctic has transformed from a remote, ice-locked expanse into a geopolitical chessboard where the U.S., Russia, and China vie for influence. Under Trump, the U.S. is no longer content to play defense.

In March 2025, Trump approved a sweeping five-year leasing plan for offshore oil and gas drilling across the Alaskan Arctic coast. This follows the reversal of several environmental protections, including restrictions on the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), reigniting fierce debate over ecological degradation and indigenous rights.

But for Trump, it’s about dominance. “We’re not going to let China or Russia own the Arctic,” he declared at a rally in Anchorage. And yet, critics point out the irony: while Moscow has over 40 icebreakers and Beijing is rapidly expanding its polar capabilities, the United States has just two aging heavy icebreakers—one of which is frequently out of service.

Trump has pledged $4 billion for a new icebreaker fleet, to be built with private sector partnerships and military cooperation. However, construction delays and cost overruns have plagued past efforts, leading some to question whether this will be yet another symbolic announcement with little real-world impact.

China, meanwhile, calls itself a “near-Arctic state” and is investing heavily in the Polar Silk Road. With infrastructure investments in Iceland, Russia, and Greenland, China is poised to project economic power across the Arctic. Russia has militarized its Arctic territory, building airstrips, radar stations, and port facilities while patrolling the Northern Sea Route with ice-hardened warships.

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The U.S. under Trump sees these moves as a threat to global balance. The Arctic, once the domain of scientists and seals, is now part of a broader great-power rivalry—and Trump wants in.


The Middle East: Where Sand Meets Strategy

Meanwhile, Trump’s May 2025 tour of the Middle East has sent diplomatic shockwaves through the region. The centerpiece? His unprecedented meeting with Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and the stunning announcement that the U.S. would lift sanctions on Damascus.

This is more than a handshake. Trump’s visit marked the first official U.S.-Syria engagement in over two decades. In a surprise twist, Sharaa offered the U.S. access to mineral and energy deals in exchange for reconstruction support, alongside a symbolic olive branch: a proposal to join the Abraham Accords. Trump, never one to shy away from transactional diplomacy, accepted.

The impact was immediate. Israel expressed quiet unease. European allies voiced concern. But Arab states cautiously welcomed the shift. In Trump’s view, this is the art of the deal—bridging decades of conflict with investment incentives and economic leverage.

But the most audacious proposal came in Qatar, where Trump unveiled plans for a U.S.-controlled “Freedom Zone” in Gaza. The idea: remove Hamas, temporarily relocate Gaza’s civilians, and rebuild the enclave into a model of prosperity and security—funded by Gulf capital, run with U.S. oversight.

Critics blasted the plan as neocolonial, dangerous, and disconnected from the grim reality on the ground. Gaza is not a clean slate. It’s a shattered strip of territory littered with unexploded ordnance, sewage, collapsed buildings, and tens of thousands of corpses. The Israeli assault that began on October 7 has turned the region into a humanitarian disaster zone. Any redevelopment would require years of demining, reconstruction, and trauma healing—not just capital and cement.

Nevertheless, Trump’s camp is pressing forward. Qatar has pledged an initial $5 billion, and Saudi Arabia hinted at additional support. The administration argues that the alternative—perpetual war and chaos—has failed. But as one analyst quipped, “You can’t build a beachfront resort on a mass grave.”

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Oil, Order, and Opportunity

Energy is the throughline between Trump’s Arctic and Middle East gambits. In both regions, fossil fuel access is seen not just as an economic prize but a geopolitical weapon. The Arctic promises untapped reserves that could challenge Russian and Norwegian production. The Middle East remains the heart of the global oil map.

Trump’s energy diplomacy has pivoted around major defense and technology deals. In Riyadh, he signed a record $142 billion arms agreement and secured $600 billion in Saudi investments in American industries—from semiconductors to rare earth minerals. Nvidia, Cisco, and other U.S. tech giants are partnering with Gulf states on AI development and military applications.

In Qatar, Trump oversaw the signing of a $10 billion deal to upgrade Al-Udeid Air Base, along with Qatar Airways’ commitment to purchase 160 Boeing aircraft. These deals blend commerce with security, reinforcing alliances while pumping billions into the U.S. economy.


America Alone? Or America First?

At the heart of Trump’s dual-theatre foreign policy is a profound belief in unilateralism. Whether it’s Arctic militarization or Gaza redevelopment, the administration views coalitions as cumbersome and international institutions as irrelevant.

In the Arctic, this means bypassing environmental protocols and Arctic Council consensus. In the Middle East, it means cutting out the UN and negotiating directly with political leaders. For Trump, diplomacy is a one-on-one poker game—not a multilateral committee meeting.

This doctrine carries risks. Climate scientists warn that Arctic drilling could accelerate melting and cause irreversible damage to Earth’s climate systems. Legal experts argue that forcibly relocating Gaza’s population, even temporarily, may violate international law. And America’s traditional allies—from Canada to France—are increasingly wary of Trump’s unpredictable moves.

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Still, the president remains undeterred. He sees the Arctic as the next frontier of competition. He sees the Middle East as ripe for redevelopment. And he sees himself as the only man bold enough to do both.


A World Recast in Trump’s Image

From sand to snow, the Trump administration is redrawing the map of American power. In the Arctic, the U.S. is racing to catch up to its rivals by doubling down on energy extraction and military infrastructure. In the Middle East, Trump is forging new alliances, rewriting old conflicts, and betting big on reconstruction schemes that blur the line between diplomacy and development.

It’s a high-risk, high-reward strategy that prioritizes dominance over diplomacy and profit over process. Whether it yields a stronger, more secure America—or leads to greater instability and global friction—will depend not just on the deals signed today, but on the consequences they unleash tomorrow.

Trump reshapes global strategy with bold Arctic push and Middle East deals redefining U.S. power
Trump reshapes global strategy with bold Arctic push and Middle East deals redefining US power
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Business

From Blackbeard to Ballistic Missiles: The Enduring Battle for Maritime Control

From pirates to Houthis, maritime threats persist, demanding modern strategies rooted in historical lessons

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From pirates to Houthis, maritime threats persist, demanding modern strategies rooted in historical lessons

Throughout the annals of maritime history, the spectre of piracy has haunted merchant shipping lanes, testing the ingenuity and resolve of seafarers and naval strategists alike. From the swashbuckling marauders of the so-called Golden Age of Piracy to the missile-armed insurgents of today’s volatile maritime theatres, the nature of the threat may have changed, but its essence remains rooted in the disruption of commerce, the assertion of power, and the exploitation of vulnerable shipping routes.

Historical Echoes: The Age of Pirates and Imperial Responses

The 17th and 18th centuries were the apex of piracy in the Caribbean and the Atlantic. Figures such as Edward Teach, known to the world as Blackbeard, became infamous not only for their brutality but also for their calculated use of psychological warfare. Blackbeard famously wove slow-burning fuses into his beard, creating an aura of demonic invincibility during boarding actions. His reign of terror culminated in 1718 off the coast of North Carolina, where he was killed in battle with British Royal Navy forces, following a deliberate campaign to root out piracy from the American colonies.

Bartholomew Roberts, often called the ‘Great Pirate Roberts,’ was another formidable figure—his career, lasting only three years, saw the capture of over 400 vessels, from the coasts of Africa to the Caribbean. His operational model was one of relentless aggression combined with strict internal discipline, demonstrating that successful piracy often required as much organisational acumen as bravado.

Meanwhile, Henry Every, sometimes styled as ‘The Arch Pirate,’ masterminded what remains one of the most profitable pirate heists in history—the 1695 capture of the Ganj-i-Sawai, a Mughal treasure ship laden with gold, silver, and jewels. His actions triggered diplomatic crises between Britain and the Mughal Empire, highlighting the international ramifications of piracy and forcing European powers to adopt more assertive maritime policies.

In response to these threats, imperial powers developed robust naval doctrines designed not merely to defend merchant vessels but to project national power on the high seas. The British Royal Navy pioneered the concept of permanent overseas squadrons, strategically stationed in key maritime chokepoints. The 1718 assault on Nassau in the Bahamas—known as the campaign that dismantled the self-proclaimed Republic of Pirates—is a textbook example of such offensive operations, where the aim was to deny pirates their safe havens entirely.

Similarly, Spain’s ‘flota’ system, operationalised from the 16th century, epitomised defensive convoy strategy. Treasure fleets from the Americas would sail under the protection of heavily armed galleons, forming tight, well-defended flotillas designed to repel pirate raids and privateer attacks. The success of this system helped Spain maintain its economic supremacy in Europe for over a century, proving the value of coordinated, state-sponsored maritime protection.

Modern Parallels: Houthis, the Red Sea, and the Return of Asymmetric Maritime Warfare

These historic precedents resonate powerfully in the 21st century, as global shipping lanes face a resurgence of asymmetric maritime threats—albeit without the Jolly Roger fluttering from the masthead. Since late 2023, Yemen’s Houthi rebels have waged an unprecedented campaign against commercial shipping in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Gulf of Aden, deploying an arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, sea drones, and remote-controlled explosive-laden boats.

While their motivations are rooted in regional politics and the Israel-Gaza conflict, the Houthis’ tactics mirror classic piracy in their disruption of trade routes and coercive diplomacy through violence at sea. Their attacks have forced major shipping lines to divert vessels thousands of miles around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, triggering supply chain disruptions and raising global freight costs.

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In response, the European Union launched Operation Aspides in early 2024, deploying a naval task force aimed at escorting vessels and deterring Houthi attacks. The operation, reminiscent of the Royal Navy’s convoy escorts during the Napoleonic Wars, prioritised defensive postures, with frigates and destroyers patrolling key lanes and providing air defence cover. However, as in the age of sail, purely defensive strategies showed their limitations—Houthis leveraged the speed, range, and ubiquity of modern missiles and drones, often overwhelming naval screens and striking at distances that outpaced traditional patrol tactics.

Operation Prosperity Guardian: Offensive Doctrine Reimagined

In contrast, the United States’ Operation Prosperity Guardian, initiated in 2024, embraced a more offensive posture, drawing clear parallels to Britain’s historical approach to piracy. Rather than merely protecting shipping lanes, the U.S. Navy and Air Force conducted precision strikes against Houthi missile launch sites, radar installations, and drone assembly workshops inside Yemen, aiming to degrade the group’s offensive capabilities at their source.

This approach harks back to the Royal Navy’s philosophy of taking the fight to the pirates’ doorstep—denying them the sanctuary from which to project power. The May 2025 ceasefire agreement brokered by Oman following these strikes reflects the effectiveness of such a strategy. Yet, the deal’s exclusion of Israeli-linked vessels underscores the fragility of these arrangements and the complex interplay of military action, diplomacy, and geopolitical bargaining that defines modern naval conflict.

Beyond the Horizon: Adapting Legacy Strategies to New Threats

The current Red Sea crisis is not an anomaly—it is part of an evolving pattern of maritime contestation, where non-state actors, backed by state sponsors, weaponise commercial vulnerabilities in critical chokepoints. From the Houthis to Somali pirates in the previous decade, the common thread is the exploitation of ungoverned maritime spaces, where global commerce remains most exposed.

In this environment, navies of the world—particularly those of the West—are once again confronted with the age-old challenge of protecting freedom of navigation, but in an era where the tools of disruption are faster, cheaper, and more accessible than ever before. The lessons of the past—whether the Spanish flota system, the British suppression campaigns against pirate strongholds, or even the coordinated multinational anti-piracy patrols off Somalia—are as relevant today as they were in the age of galleons and cutlasses.

But innovation must complement tradition. Modern navies must integrate cyber capabilities, space-based surveillance, and unmanned systems into their doctrines to remain effective in an increasingly congested and contested maritime domain. They must also foster international cooperation, recognising that the seas are not just a battlefield but the lifeblood of global commerce and stability.

From Blackbeard to ballistic missiles, the oceans have always tested the will and adaptability of those who sail them. The contest for maritime control is far from over, and the next chapter is being written not in the pages of history books, but in the shifting waters of the Red Sea, the South China Sea, and beyond.

From pirates to Houthis, maritime threats persist, demanding modern strategies rooted in historical lessons
From pirates to Houthis maritime threats persist demanding modern strategies rooted in historical lessons
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Opinion

Statecraft or Stagecraft? How Trump’s Middle East Visit Resonated with the Public

Trump’s Middle East tour drew investments, praise, and controversy—while avoiding Gaza’s crisis and criticism

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Trump’s Middle East tour drew investments, praise, and controversy—while avoiding Gaza’s crisis and criticism

President Donald Trump’s recent tour of the Middle East—his first trip to the Middle East in his second term—was met with mixed public reactions across the region and in the United States. The trip, which spanned Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, combined military pageantry with high-level economic announcements, but also reignited debate about what U.S. engagement in the Middle East truly delivers for the people.

While Gulf leaders offered a red-carpet welcome, and media coverage in state-aligned outlets praised the visit’s “strategic depth” and “economic promise”, public opinion on the ground was more complex. In Saudi Arabia and the UAE, segments of the business community applauded Trump’s emphasis on commercial partnerships and infrastructure investments. “The hope is that this kind of diplomacy brings jobs and faster tech development”, a Saudi entrepreneur said during the Riyadh leg of the tour.

Palestinian Frustration and Regional Silence

One of the most striking aspects of the visit was what wasn’t said. Despite the Gaza war continuing to dominate headlines globally, Trump made no public reference to the ongoing humanitarian crisis, nor did his itinerary include stops in Israel or the Palestinian territories. Palestinian analysts and diaspora communities criticized this silence as deliberate—a reflection of a strategy that values regional normalization over conflict resolution.

“The people in Gaza don’t need hotels and resorts; they need security and sovereignty”, said a Palestinian American organizer. The lack of public engagement with the conflict, even symbolically, was seen by many as a missed opportunity to address one of the region’s most urgent humanitarian crises.

American Reactions: Ethics and Optics

Back in the United States, public response to Trump’s Middle East visit centered on both geopolitical implications and ethical scrutiny. The most contentious revelation was Qatar’s gift of a $400 million Boeing 747-800 jet for use as a new Air Force One. While the administration insisted the gift was to the United States, not to President Trump personally, critics from across the political spectrum raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest—particularly given Trump’s private business relationships in the region.

Ethics watchdogs and some lawmakers called for further transparency, citing past controversies over foreign emoluments and influence. Supporters, meanwhile, hailed the trip as a reaffirmation of American strength abroad, arguing that Trump’s ability to extract multi-billion dollar investment commitments from regional allies demonstrates effective leadership.

The People Between Deals

Despite the diplomatic glitz and billion-dollar announcements, Trump’s visit left many in the region asking how much will actually trickle down. For Gulf citizens, the hope is that foreign partnerships lead to real economic benefits—more jobs, better infrastructure, and technological innovation. For migrant workers and political activists, there is fear that the U.S. once again reinforced a model of diplomacy that sidelines human rights in favor of economic and military priorities.

The visit also reinforced a pattern: diplomacy that is visually grand and headline-driven, yet often disconnected from the day-to-day concerns of the people living under the policies negotiated in palaces and boardrooms.

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A Final Note

Trump’s 2025 Middle East visit was as much a campaign performance as it was a diplomatic exercise. While it signaled continued U.S. relevance in a region increasingly exploring alternatives—like China and Turkey—it also underscored how far-removed high-level diplomacy can be from the public’s priorities. As the region’s people navigate the implications of shifting alliances and soaring promises, the visit served as a reminder: behind every strategic deal lies a population waiting to see what, if anything, truly changes for them.

Trump’s Middle East tour drew investments, praise, and controversy—while avoiding Gaza’s crisis and criticism
Trumps Middle East tour drew investments praise and controversywhile avoiding Gazas crisis and criticism
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