When delegates gather in Baku for the thirteenth World Urban Forum, they are not only convening another UN conference; they are meeting at a point where housing now shapes the stability, resilience and legitimacy of cities worldwide. Nearly 2.8 billion people live in inadequate housing and over 300 million are homeless, while close to 70 percent of the global population is projected to reside in cities by 2050, concentrating both risk and opportunity in urban areas. The decision to frame the forum around the theme Housing the World Safe and Resilient Cities and Communities reflects a shift from viewing housing as a single sector to treating it as the backbone of economic, social and climate policy.
Housing Costs, Conflict and Climate as Interlocking Pressures
The current crisis is not the product of one driver but of intertwined pressures from affordability, conflict and climate instability. UN Habitat chief Anaclaudia Rossbach has described the situation as a global housing crisis, noting that what was once most acute in the global South is increasingly felt in wealthier regions as living costs rise. International crises including the war in the Middle East and related disruptions in global supply chains add further stress to construction costs and public budgets, narrowing the fiscal space that governments can use to expand affordable housing.
Climate shocks now intensify these structural weaknesses. Extreme weather events displaced more than 20 million people in 2023, while projections suggest climate change could destroy 167 million homes by 2040, forcing many into informal settlements or secondary displacement. At the same time the construction sector produces about 34 percent of global energy related carbon dioxide emissions, exposing a stark dilemma, as the world must build more homes without locking in a high emissions path.
Informal Settlements as Both Symptom and Policy Frontier
The forum places informal settlements at the center of debate, signalling an important change in narrative. An estimated 1.1 billion people currently live in slums, and this figure may rise by up to two billion in the coming decades, with between 350 and 500 million children growing up in such conditions. For decades these areas have been treated primarily as problems to be removed, yet for many urban residents they are the only feasible entry point into the city, reflecting failures in land markets, planning and social policy rather than individual choices.
UN Habitat now emphasizes that policy must move beyond evictions and piecemeal upgrading toward integrated approaches that connect informal settlements to secure tenure, basic services and climate resilient infrastructure. If Baku leads to practical commitments on land governance and inclusive planning, informal neighborhoods could become testing grounds for new models of low carbon, affordable urban development rather than permanent zones of exclusion.
From Houses to Systems: Recovery, Finance and Governance
Speakers from the UN Development Programme argue that the crisis cannot be treated as a mere construction gap but as a complex systems challenge embedded in urban economies, finance and governance. More than 123 million people were forcibly displaced by the end of 2022, over 60 percent of them sheltering in urban areas, which forces cities to absorb sudden population shocks while already facing limited housing supply. In this context reconstruction after wars or disasters needs to focus on rebuilding communities and livelihoods as well as dwellings, or post conflict cities risk becoming permanently fragmented.
This system’s perspective underpins the six core dialogues at the forum, which range from the global housing plan and transforming informal settlements to the climate housing nexus and a new deal for housing finance. The financial dimension is particularly sensitive, since housing has often been treated as a speculative asset rather than a social good, fuelling price bubbles and deep inequality. In Baku, the push for new coalitions among governments, private investors and communities could point toward financing models that prioritize long term affordability and resilience over short term returns.
Climate Compatible Housing as A Test of Global Commitments
The climate housing link makes this forum an implicit test of broader international commitments on sustainable development and the Paris Agreement. What and where societies build today will shape energy use, emissions and vulnerability for decades, which is why Rossbach warns that choices about materials, locations and design all carry consequences for natural resources and community resilience to shocks. If Baku manages to showcase scalable examples of low carbon building, nature based urban protection and climate informed land use planning, it can help move the debate from aspirational statements to concrete standards that cities can adopt.
A Collective Test at the Midpoint of the New Urban Agenda
The forum also coincides with the tenth anniversary of the New Urban Agenda and precedes its midterm review at the UN General Assembly, turning Baku into an informal stocktaking of global will to transform urbanization. More than 27,000 participants are registered, from governments and mayors to civil society organizations and academics, reflecting recognition that no single actor can resolve the housing crisis alone. Whether this gathering becomes a turning point will depend less on declarations issued and more on whether cities leave with shared metrics, financing tools and governance reforms that can be implemented within the next few years.
