The strategic landscape of the Arabian Peninsula has shifted fundamentally this week as the decade-long partnership between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates effectively collapsed on Yemeni soil. While the two nations previously cooperated to restore the internationally recognized government, their divergent interests regarding southern sovereignty have culminated in a direct military and political rupture. This escalation signals that the internal rift within the anti Houthi coalition has now become as volatile as the primary conflict with the rebels in the north.
Political Purge and High Treason Accusations
A defining moment in this crisis occurred on January 7 when Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council took the unprecedented step of expelling Aidarous al Zubaidi, the head of the Southern Transitional Council. During an emergency session, the council formally charged Zubaidi with high treason and engaging in armed insurgency after his recent attempts to establish an independent southern state. This judicial move was accompanied by the dismissal and investigation of the Ministers of Transport and Planning, both key allies of the separatist movement. These actions reflect an aggressive attempt by President Rashad al Alimi to dismantle the parallel administrative structures that have long challenged the authority of the central government.
Military Confrontation and the Battle for Mukalla
The political fallout was preceded by a significant kinetic escalation in which the Saudi Royal Air Force targeted its own nominal allies. Following a standoff over a massive shipment of armored vehicles arriving from the Emirati port of Fujairah, Saudi jets conducted air strikes on Southern Transitional Council positions in the port city of Mukalla (Middle East Forum). According to military reports, these strikes destroyed the incoming weaponry and forced a chaotic retreat of separatist forces. By January 8, Saudi backed National Shield Forces had successfully moved into Aden to reclaim government buildings and restore order (Anadolu Agency). This shift in control suggests that Riyadh is no longer willing to tolerate the expansion of separatist influence, even at the cost of its relationship with Abu Dhabi.
Implications for Regional Stability and the Houthi Threat
The collapse of the Saudi UAE axis provides a strategic windfall for the Houthi movement in Sanaa. As elite units like the Giants Forces are redeployed from the front lines to defend southern strongholds against Saudi backed government advances, critical areas such as the oil rich Marib governorate remain increasingly vulnerable (Middle East Forum). Furthermore, the humanitarian crisis continues to deepen as internal displacement rises and aid operations are hampered by the new wave of insecurity. Current United Nations estimates indicate that 23.1 million people will require assistance in 2026, a figure that is likely to grow if the southern civil war intensifies (UNOCHA). The fracture of the coalition meant to stabilize Yemen has instead created a power vacuum that may prolong the suffering of the civilian population for years to come.
A Final Note
The transition from diplomatic friction to open warfare between coalition partners marks the end of the unified front against the Houthi insurgency. The coming weeks will reveal whether the internationally recognized government can consolidate its gains or if the south will descend into a new phase of multi factional conflict.
