Connect with us

Business

Trump 2.0 and the Global Economy: Anticipating the Impact of His Return to Power

Published

on

Trump 2.0 and the Global Economy: Anticipating the Impact of His Return to Power

Former President Donald Trump’s return to the political stage has reignited global economic discussions, not least because of his ability to shape economic expectations even before taking office. His proposed policies suggest a sharp pivot from the strategies employed during President Biden’s tenure. For many countries, the ripple effects will be felt most acutely through trade, financial markets, and geopolitical relationships. While some regions may benefit, others, particularly those highly exposed to the US economy, face economic disruptions.

Trump’s potential second term, marked by a Republican sweep, guarantees a high degree of macroeconomic volatility. His proposed agenda—emphasizing deregulation, tax cuts, protectionism, and tighter immigration control—may offer short-term economic gains but risks long-term consequences. Key analyses, such as those from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, predict inflationary pressures, suppressed growth, and elevated uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s independence. Below is a closer examination of his key policies and their potential effects.


1. Higher Tariffs: A Return to Protectionism

One of Trump’s cornerstone policies during his first term was imposing tariffs, particularly on China, to promote American manufacturing. His proposed second-term tariffs are likely to amplify this approach, extending duties across broader sectors.

According to the Peterson Institute, additional tariffs could decrease US GDP by 0.9% by 2026, while inflation may rise by 1.3 percentage points by 2025. Supply chain disruptions from these measures would complicate global trade, particularly for countries reliant on the US as an export market. The stronger US dollar, buoyed by protectionist policies, could exacerbate global trade imbalances, making exports from emerging economies less competitive.

These trade frictions could directly impact Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations. For example, petrochemical exports to the US, a vital revenue stream for countries like Saudi Arabia, could face heightened tariffs, reducing profit margins. On the flip side, Trump’s pro-energy agenda might bolster US-GCC partnerships in fossil fuels.


2. Mass Deportation of Immigrants: An Economic Disruption

Trump’s renewed calls for stricter immigration policies, including the deportation of illegal immigrants, carry significant economic consequences. Removing millions of undocumented workers would directly impact labour-intensive sectors like agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. These industries rely heavily on immigrant labour to maintain productivity and manage costs.

The US labour market, with an unemployment rate of just 4.1%, would struggle to replace such a vast workforce, triggering wage increases and potentially sparking a wage-price inflation spiral. Higher wages would increase production costs across the board, driving up consumer prices. According to a 2024 Economic Policy Institute report, deporting 10 million undocumented workers could lower US GDP by up to 1.6% annually while raising core inflation by 0.8%.

This disruption could create global economic ripples. For instance, industries reliant on US agricultural exports, such as the Middle East’s food security initiatives, might face costlier imports. Additionally, remittances from migrant workers, crucial for economies in Latin America and Southeast Asia, would plummet, destabilizing these regions.

Advertisement

3. Erosion of Federal Reserve Independence

Perhaps the most destabilizing aspect of Trump’s potential return is his open criticism of the Federal Reserve and its leadership. While Trump has yet to articulate detailed plans, past behaviour suggests an inclination to pressure the Fed to adopt politically motivated policies. For example, during his first term, he repeatedly called for lower interest rates to stimulate growth, even as inflation risks loomed.

If the Fed succumbs to political interference, it could pursue aggressive growth-oriented measures, abandoning its inflation-targeting mandate. Such actions would likely undermine investor confidence, trigger capital outflows, and destabilize the US dollar. According to a 2024 report by Moody’s Analytics, this scenario could lead to 1.5% higher inflation annually and a 30% increase in US Treasury yields, significantly raising borrowing costs worldwide.

For regions like the GCC, the implications are mixed. On the one hand, a weakened dollar and higher oil prices could benefit oil exporters. On the other, higher borrowing costs for dollar-denominated debts could strain corporate and government finances.


Global Implications: Winners and Losers

The effects of Trump’s policies would not be confined to the US. In Europe, higher tariffs and a stronger dollar could strain EU-US trade relations, weakening the European economy. Emerging markets reliant on dollar liquidity, such as Turkey and Egypt, would face financing challenges.

Conversely, the GCC could find opportunities in Trump’s pro-energy stance. His administration is likely to roll back climate-focused policies, potentially fostering closer ties with Gulf oil producers. Increased US reliance on traditional energy sources could also drive investment in GCC infrastructure projects.


A Volatile Global Economic Future

Trump 2.0 promises to bring dramatic shifts to the global economy, with protectionist policies, aggressive deregulation, and potential monetary policy interventions reshaping international markets. While some regions may benefit from closer alignment with US priorities, the broader picture points to heightened inflation, reduced global trade, and significant financial market volatility.

In this uncertain environment, businesses and governments worldwide must prepare for a more fragmented economic landscape. For the GCC, navigating Trump’s policies will require balancing opportunities in the energy sector with risks from higher borrowing costs and potential trade restrictions. Ultimately, Trump’s return underscores the profound influence a single leader can have on global economic dynamics.

Advertisement

Business

DHL Halts High-Value U.S. Shipments, Shaking Global Trade and Luxury Brands

DHL suspends high-value B2C shipments to U.S., disrupting global trade and luxury exports significantly

Published

on

DHL suspends high-value B2C shipments to U.S., disrupting global trade and luxury exports significantly

Global logistics leader DHL has announced a temporary suspension of business-to-consumer (B2C) shipments to the United States for packages valued over $800. This decision, effective from April 21, 2025, comes in response to recent changes in U.S. customs regulations that have significantly increased the complexity and processing time for higher-value imports.

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) recently lowered the threshold for mandatory formal entry processing from $2,500 to $800, effective April 5. This change requires more detailed documentation for shipments exceeding the new threshold, leading to substantial delays and increased workload for customs clearance processes. DHL cited these challenges as the primary reason for the suspension, stating that the surge in formal customs clearances has overwhelmed their systems, causing multi-day transit delays for affected shipments .

While B2C shipments over $800 are suspended, business-to-business (B2B) shipments of similar value will continue, albeit with potential delays due to the heightened scrutiny and paperwork requirements. Shipments valued under $800 remain unaffected by this suspension.

The suspension has sent ripples through international markets, particularly affecting exporters who rely heavily on U.S. consumers. British luxury brands, for instance, have expressed significant concern. Companies like Joseph Cheaney & Sons and Sabina Savage, which derive a substantial portion of their sales from the U.S., are facing logistical nightmares. Sabina Savage noted that 90% of her customers are based in the U.S., and the suspension has led to additional costs and challenges in fulfilling orders .

Trade bodies have also voiced their apprehensions. Walpole, representing British luxury brands including Burberry and Alexander McQueen, highlighted that their members are being “doubly penalised”—unable to deliver goods and subjected to a 10% tariff on those that do get through. Helen Brocklebank, Walpole’s chief executive, emphasized the financial strain this places on businesses that have built long-standing relationships with DHL and now face the daunting task of finding alternative logistics providers .

The suspension is part of a broader context of escalating trade tensions. President Donald Trump’s administration has implemented a series of tariffs aimed at reducing trade deficits, notably imposing a 145% tariff on Chinese goods. In retaliation, China has enacted a 125% tariff on U.S. products. These measures have disrupted global supply chains and increased costs for businesses and consumers alike .

Analysts warn that the growing bureaucratic strain could disrupt global e-commerce and supply chains, raising costs for U.S. consumers. The rollback of the “de minimis” exemption, which previously allowed low-cost imports to bypass duties and inspections, is expected to further impact companies that rely on shipping low-cost goods to the U.S., such as Shein and Temu .

DHL has emphasized that the suspension is a temporary measure and that they are working diligently to manage the increased workload caused by the new customs regulations. The company has not provided a specific timeline for when the suspension will be lifted but has promised to share updates as the situation evolves .

Advertisement

In the meantime, businesses affected by the suspension are exploring alternative logistics providers, though many have expressed concerns about the costs and complexities involved in transitioning from established relationships with DHL. The situation underscores the broader economic fallout of recent trade policy changes, affecting both exporters and American consumers of international goods. As the global trade landscape continues to evolve, businesses and consumers alike will need to adapt to the changing regulatory environment and its implications for international commerce.

DHL suspends high value B2C shipments to US disrupting global trade and luxury exports significantly
Continue Reading

Business

Scams Without Borders: How Asian Crime Syndicates Went Global

Asian scam syndicates expand globally, exploiting trafficking, tech, and weak law enforcement across continents

Published

on

Asian scam syndicates expand globally, exploiting trafficking, tech, and weak law enforcement across continents

Once confined to Southeast Asia, particularly in countries like Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, scam operations orchestrated by Asian crime syndicates have now expanded their reach globally. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) reports that these operations are generating nearly $40 billion annually through various fraudulent activities, including romance scams, fake investment schemes, and illicit online gambling. This expansion is partly a response to intensified crackdowns in Southeast Asia, prompting these syndicates to relocate to regions with weaker law enforcement, such as parts of Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe.

The Mechanics of Modern Scam Operations

These scam operations often involve large compounds where trafficked individuals are coerced into conducting online scams. Victims are lured with promises of legitimate employment but find themselves trapped in conditions akin to modern slavery. Their passports are confiscated, and they face threats of violence or worse if they fail to meet scam quotas. Technological advancements have further empowered these operations; the use of artificial intelligence, deepfakes, and cryptocurrencies make it easier to deceive victims and launder money, complicating efforts to trace and dismantle these networks.

Global Hotspots and Notorious Scams: Who’s Getting Hit the Hardest?

By 2025, the reach of Asian-organized scam operations has expanded far beyond their initial strongholds in Southeast Asia, now deeply affecting countries across Africa, Latin America, and parts of Europe. These syndicates are adapting quickly, exploiting regions with limited cyber enforcement capacity and regulatory oversight. Law enforcement actions in early 2025 in countries like Nigeria, Zambia, and Angola have revealed growing local footholds for scam infrastructure, often linked to trafficking networks relocating from Myanmar and Cambodia.

Latin America has also emerged as a major target zone. Brazilian authorities have reported a surge in online financial scams, many operated remotely through fraudulent crypto trading platforms linked to Southeast Asian crime syndicates. In a striking case in Peru in late 2023, authorities rescued over 40 trafficked Malaysians who had been forced to perpetrate cyber fraud under threat of violence — a scenario that’s becoming more frequent as scam centers globalize their labor sourcing.

Among the most infamous scams now circulating worldwide is the “pig butchering” scheme — a long-con tactic involving emotional manipulation and fraudulent crypto investments. The FBI reported that in 2024 alone, over 4,300 victims in the U.S. were directly affected by this scam, with global financial losses from such frauds reaching nearly $10 billion. Romance scams more broadly continue to flourish in the U.S., nearly 59,000 people lost an estimated $697.3 million in 2024, primarily through dating app and social media cons that escalated into financial exploitation.

Human Trafficking and Exploitation

A disturbing aspect of these operations is the human cost. According to the UN, at least 120,000 people in Myanmar and 100,000 in Cambodia are being held in scam compounds under duress. These individuals are often subjected to physical abuse, forced labor, and in some cases, threats of organ harvesting. The international nature of these crimes means that victims come from various countries, including Brazil, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, and Uzbekistan, highlighting the global reach and impact of these syndicates.

Challenges in Combating the Spread

Law enforcement agencies face significant hurdles in addressing this issue. The transnational nature of these crimes, coupled with the use of sophisticated technology and the exploitation of jurisdictions with weak governance, makes it difficult to coordinate effective responses. Moreover, the profitability of these operations provides little incentive for local authorities in some regions to take action. International operations like “Operation First Light 2024” have made some headway, resulting in thousands of arrests and the seizure of millions in assets. However, these efforts are often reactive and limited in scope, underscoring the need for a more proactive and coordinated global strategy.

Implications for Global Security and Economy

The proliferation of these scam operations poses a significant threat to global security and economic stability. The financial losses incurred by victims are substantial, with the United States alone reporting over $5.6 billion in losses to cryptocurrency scams in 2023. Beyond the economic impact, the human rights violations associated with these operations, including human trafficking and forced labor, represent a moral crisis that demands immediate attention. Failure to address these issues could lead to further destabilization in vulnerable regions and undermine international efforts to combat organized crime.

Advertisement

A Final Note

The expansion of Asian scam operations into a global network is a pressing issue that transcends borders and requires a unified international response. As these syndicates continue to evolve and adapt, so too must the strategies employed to dismantle them. This includes not only law enforcement actions but also efforts to address the underlying socio-economic factors that make individuals and regions susceptible to exploitation.

Asian scam syndicates expand globally exploiting trafficking tech and weak law enforcement across continents
Continue Reading

Business

The Magic Stalls: Why Disney’s Parks Are Losing Their Spark at Home

Disney’s U.S. theme parks face slowing attendance as travel costs rise and preferences shift

Published

on

Disney’s U.S. theme parks face slowing attendance as travel costs rise and preferences shift

The allure of Disney’s theme parks, long a cornerstone of American tourism, is facing challenges as a slowdown in international visitors to the U.S. impacts attendance figures. Economic factors, shifting travel preferences, and rising costs are contributing to a complex landscape for Disney’s domestic parks.

Recent reports indicate that Disney’s domestic theme parks have experienced a stagnation in attendance growth. In 2024, domestic attendance was up just 1% compared to a 6% increase in 2023. Hotel bookings remained flat at 85% occupancy, and while guest spending saw a modest uptick, the overall operating profit declined by 3%.

Hugh Johnston, Disney’s Chief Financial Officer, attributed the decline to “moderation of consumer demand,” noting that rising food and labor costs have squeezed the parks’ profitability. He also highlighted that higher-income consumers are opting for international travel, taking advantage of the strong U.S. dollar, while lower-income consumers are feeling financial pressures that deter discretionary spending on vacations.

International Travel: A Competing Attraction

The strength of the U.S. dollar has made international destinations more appealing to American travelers. Len Testa, president of the trip planning website Touring Plans, observed that families are increasingly comparing the cost of a Disney vacation to trips abroad, often finding international travel to be a more memorable and cost-effective option.

This shift is not only affecting Disney but also other theme park operators. Universal and Six Flags have reported declines in revenue and guest attendance, signaling a broader trend in the industry. The cost of a Disney vacation has risen significantly, with the average price of a one-week vacation in the U.S. for one person estimated at $1,991. A family of four looking to visit Disney World should budget several thousand dollars, making alternative vacations like cruises or European trips more competitive.

Additionally, the introduction of paid services such as Lightning Lane, replacing the once-free FastPass+, and the discontinuation of complimentary services like airport shuttle buses, have altered the value proposition for visitors. These changes, coupled with steady ticket price increases, have led some to question whether Disney has reached a “price plateau” that could deter future attendance.

Disney’s Strategic Response

Advertisement

Despite these challenges, Disney remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of its parks. The company has announced plans to invest $60 billion over the next decade to expand and enhance its theme parks and cruise lines, aiming to attract new visitors and retain loyal fans.

Disney executives acknowledge the current “demand moderation” but believe that the parks’ unique offerings and strong intellectual property portfolio will continue to draw guests. They are actively monitoring attendance and guest spending while managing costs to navigate the current economic landscape.

Looking Ahead

As the travel industry adjusts to post-pandemic realities and economic fluctuations, Disney’s theme parks face the challenge of balancing affordability with the premium experiences that guests expect. The company’s substantial investments in park enhancements signal a commitment to maintaining its position as a leading destination, even as it adapts to changing consumer behaviors and preferences. The coming years will be pivotal in determining how Disney navigates these challenges and whether it can recapture the magic that has long defined its theme park experiences.

Disney’s U.S. theme parks face slowing attendance as travel costs rise and preferences shift
Disneys US theme parks face slowing attendance as travel costs rise and preferences shift
Continue Reading

Trending