The recent attack in Kashmir, which left several members of the Indian security forces and civilians dead, has once again drawn global attention to one of the world’s longest-running and most complex territorial disputes. The Kashmir conflict, primarily between India and Pakistan, has persisted since the partition of British India in 1947, leading to three full-scale wars and countless border skirmishes.
For the UAE, which maintains strategic partnerships with both nations, such developments carry significant geopolitical, economic, and security implications.
Kashmir, a Muslim-majority region divided between Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan-administered Azad Jammu and Kashmir, remains a highly militarized zone. India claims sovereignty over the entire region, while Pakistan views it as disputed territory. This status quo is frequently disrupted by insurgent activities, cross-border shelling, and political unrest, often resulting in civilian casualties and military retaliation. The latest attack, which Indian authorities have attributed to Pakistan-based militant groups, is part of a broader pattern of violence that undermines regional security and raises the specter of renewed confrontation between two nuclear-armed powers.
From a UAE standpoint, this escalation is not a distant issue but one that intersects directly with broader regional interests. The UAE has cultivated strong diplomatic and economic ties with India, becoming one of its largest foreign investors. Trade between the two nations reached approximately $85 billion in 2023, making the UAE India’s third-largest trading partner. Major Emirati entities, such as Mubadala and DP World, have invested in key Indian sectors including ports, logistics, renewable energy, and urban infrastructure. A destabilized South Asia, particularly a politically volatile India, could threaten these investments and the broader economic partnership that both countries have worked diligently to build.
Simultaneously, the UAE has in recent years expanded its cooperation with Pakistan, especially in areas of humanitarian aid, energy, and agriculture. In 2024 alone, the UAE pledged over $1.5 billion in economic assistance and development funding to Pakistan, which continues to grapple with fiscal instability. Escalating tensions in Kashmir could further strain Pakistan’s internal cohesion, aggravating political divisions and military pressures, and potentially derailing development efforts that the UAE supports.
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The diplomatic dimension is equally sensitive. The UAE has historically advocated for de-escalation and dialogue, maintaining a position of constructive neutrality in global affairs. In 2019, the UAE awarded Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi its highest civilian honor, the Order of Zayed, even as tensions were high over India’s revocation of Article 370, which stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its special constitutional status. This move sparked criticism from segments of the Muslim world, but the UAE defended its stance as a recognition of strategic partnership and mutual interests. At the same time, the UAE has continued humanitarian engagement in Pakistan and has expressed concern over civilian casualties in conflict zones, calling for peaceful resolutions through dialogue.
The UAE’s significant expatriate populations from both India and Pakistan, numbering approximately 3.5 million and 1.5 million respectively, add another layer of complexity. These communities not only contribute to the UAE’s economy through labor and entrepreneurship but also send billions of dirhams in remittances back to their home countries. A flare-up in Kashmir could inflame communal tensions abroad and place pressure on the UAE’s internal social harmony, making stability in South Asia a domestic concern as well.
In addition to the risks, the UAE can identify opportunities in this geopolitical scenario. Its rising profile as a regional and global mediator, evidenced by its role in brokering the Abraham Accords and hosting COP28, positions it well to offer diplomatic support or even facilitation of dialogue between India and Pakistan, should both parties be willing. The UAE could also extend its model of soft power diplomacy by investing in reconstruction and development projects in conflict-affected areas, with a focus on humanitarian aid, education, and renewable energy.
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Kashmir remains a deeply emotional and political issue for both India and Pakistan, but the human cost of prolonged conflict is undeniable. More than 70,000 people have reportedly died since the insurgency began in 1989, and hundreds of thousands have been displaced. The people of Kashmir, who often find themselves caught between military operations and separatist violence, deserve a future grounded in peace and dignity.
For the UAE, maintaining a delicate balance between its economic ambitions, regional influence, and diplomatic values is essential. While the Kashmir conflict is deeply rooted and unlikely to find quick resolution, the UAE’s ability to act as a stabilizing force, whether through back-channel diplomacy, economic investment, or humanitarian engagement, represents a meaningful way to contribute to regional peace. As the world becomes more interconnected, regional conflicts like Kashmir are no longer isolated. They ripple across borders and markets, affecting the interests and security of nations far beyond their immediate geography. The UAE, as a forward-looking state committed to stability, is well-positioned to be part of the long-term solution.
