As Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term as President, he inherits a world that is more dangerous and complex than the one he left behind. Senator Mitch McConnell, writing in Foreign Affairs for its January/February 2025 edition, outlines a strong case for rejecting isolationism and doubling down on American global leadership. In his piece, McConnell reflects on the increasing threats posed by China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, warning against complacency and advocating for a strategy rooted in hard power and alliances.
A Dangerous World
McConnell describes the world stage as one where U.S. adversaries are emboldened by perceived American weakness. He writes: “China has intensified its efforts to expand its military, political, and economic influence worldwide. Russia is fighting a brutal and unjustified war in Ukraine. Iran remains undeterred in its campaign to destroy Israel, dominate the Middle East, and develop a nuclear weapons capability. And these three U.S. adversaries, along with North Korea, are now working together more closely than ever to undermine the U.S.-led order that has underpinned Western peace and prosperity for nearly a century.”
Criticizing the Biden administration, McConnell states, “Today’s revanchist powers do not seek deeper integration with the existing international order; they reject its very basis. They draw strength from American weakness, and their appetite for hegemony has only grown with the eating.”
Rejecting Isolationism
McConnell rejects the notion that the United States can disengage from global responsibilities, warning against those who advocate for “Fortress America” or downplay the significance of U.S. commitments overseas. He writes: “Even though the competition with China and Russia is a global challenge, Trump will no doubt hear from some that he should prioritize a single theater and downgrade U.S. interests and commitments elsewhere. Most of these voices will argue for focusing on Asia at the expense of interests in Europe or the Middle East.”
He adds: “The right has retrenched in the face of Russian aggression in Europe, while the left has demonstrated a chronic allergy to deterring Iran and supporting Israel. Neither camp has committed to maintaining the military superiority or sustaining the alliances needed to contest revisionist powers. If the United States continues to retreat, its enemies will be only too happy to fill the void.”
A Global Strategy
McConnell stresses the need for a comprehensive global strategy that addresses interconnected threats. “Standing up to China will require Trump to reject the myopic advice that he prioritize that challenge by abandoning Ukraine. A Russian victory would not only damage the United States’ interest in European security and increase U.S. military requirements in Europe; it would also compound the threats from China, Iran, and North Korea,” he writes.
Drawing on historical missteps, McConnell highlights the consequences of U.S. disengagement: “In the Middle East, Obama’s premature withdrawal from Iraq left a vacuum for Iran and the Islamic State (also known as ISIS) to fill, and the ensuing chaos there consumed Washington for years.”
The Importance of Hard Power
At the heart of McConnell’s argument is a call to reinvest in hard power. “Trump would be wise to build his foreign policy on the enduring cornerstone of U.S. leadership: hard power. To reverse the neglect of military strength, his administration must commit to a significant and sustained increase in defense spending, generational investments in the defense industrial base, and urgent reforms to speed the United States’ development of new capabilities and to expand allies’ and partners’ access to them,” he writes.
He warns against the pitfalls of underfunding the military: “The United States needs a military that can handle multiple increasingly coordinated threats at once. Without one, a president will likely hesitate to expend limited resources on one threat at the expense of others, thereby ceding initiative or victory to an adversary.”
The Role of Allies
McConnell lauds progress made by U.S. allies, particularly in Europe, where defense spending has surged in response to Russian aggression. “In Europe, Trump will find encouraging progress. After major surges in their defense budgets, U.S. allies on the continent now spend 18 percent more than they did a year ago, a far greater increase than the United States’. More than two-thirds of NATO members now meet or exceed the alliance’s target of spending at least two percent of GDP on defense.”
He also underscores the strategic alignment among allies in recognizing shared threats: “The most inconvenient truth for those calling on Trump to abandon Europe is that European allies recognize the growing links between China and Russia and increasingly see China as a ‘systemic rival.’”
No Time to Turn Inward
McConnell concludes his essay with a stark warning: “Isolation is no better a strategy today than it was on the eve of World War II. Today, in fact, in the face of linked threats even more potent than the Axis powers, a failure to uphold U.S. primacy would be even more catastrophically absurd than was the refusal to assume that responsibility 85 years ago.”
Quoting Admiral Harold Stark, he writes, “Dollars cannot buy yesterday,” urging immediate bipartisan action to restore American hard power and reinforce alliances. “The United States urgently needs to reach a bipartisan consensus on the centrality of hard power to U.S. foreign policy. This fact must override both left-wing faith in hollow internationalism and right-wing flirtation with isolation and decline.”
As Trump assumes office, McConnell’s call to action serves as a blueprint for navigating an increasingly hostile global environment. His message is clear: retreat is not an option, and the cost of inaction is too great to bear.
