In a pivotal moment for Germany’s political landscape, the federal election held on Sunday, February 23, 2025, concluded with the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), emerging as the leading force.
Under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, the CDU/CSU alliance secured 28.5% of the vote, positioning Merz to become the next Chancellor. The election also marked a significant surge for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which garnered 20.8% of the vote, while the incumbent Social Democratic Party (SPD) experienced a historic low with 16.4%.
The election results have elicited a spectrum of reactions across Germany. Friedrich Merz (CDU/CSU Leader) expressed determination to swiftly form a government, emphasizing the need for European unity and a robust defense policy.
He stated, “The world is not waiting for us… Germany needs a government that is effective and has a parliamentary majority behind it.”
Alice Weidel (AfD Leader) celebrated the party’s unprecedented success, noting, “This is a historic success for us – our best result ever.”
She extended an offer to the CDU for cooperation, which was promptly declined by Merz. While, Olaf Scholz (Outgoing SPD Chancellor) conceded defeat, acknowledging the SPD’s significant losses. He remarked, “It has been a great honor to serve as Germany’s ninth postwar leader.”
CDU/CSU’s Agenda
Under Merz’s leadership, the CDU/CSU has outlined a comprehensive agenda focusing on several key areas including tax reforms by reducing income taxes and gradually lowering corporate tax rates to 25%. While traditionally fiscally conservative, Merz has shown openness to reforming Germany’s “debt brake” to facilitate increased public investment. Implement measures to curb illegal immigration, including processing asylum claims abroad and enhancing border security. Expedite the deportation of individuals without legal residency status.
In light of shifting global alliances, particularly with the U.S., Merz emphasizes the necessity for Europe to bolster its defense capabilities. He stated, “All the signals we are getting from the US indicate that interest in Europe is waning.” Maintain unwavering support for Ukraine amidst ongoing conflicts, ensuring that Europe stands united against external aggressions. While committed to renewable energy, the CDU/CSU plans to reassess existing climate policies to balance environmental goals with economic growth. This includes potential revisions to regulations perceived as burdensome to businesses.
Implications for Coalition Building
The CDU/CSU’s 28.5% vote share necessitates the formation of a coalition to achieve a parliamentary majority. Given the SPD’s third-place finish, a “grand coalition” between the CDU/CSU and SPD is a plausible outcome. Such an alliance would combine their seats, providing a stable majority in the Bundestag.
However, ideological differences, particularly on fiscal policies and social issues, may pose challenges during coalition negotiations. Alternatively, a coalition with the Greens could be considered, focusing on common ground in economic and environmental policies.
The AfD, despite its significant gains, is unlikely to be included in any coalition due to its far-right positions and the mainstream parties’ commitment to maintaining a “firewall” against collaboration with the AfD.
The 2025 German federal election has ushered in a period of political realignment, reflecting voter concerns over economic stability, immigration, and national security.
As Friedrich Merz and the CDU/CSU navigate the complexities of coalition formation, the direction of Germany’s domestic and foreign policies will be closely watched, both within Europe and globally.
